Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
