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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It commonly functions as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic improvement wins the award. However, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or merely the greatest upset.

But the current field is distinctly different. The pool of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions declining and recent underperformers ascending in unison. Under an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a wild and fun season, he's facing five other elite coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to create magic from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But the current is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still